Ravens vs. Bills TD Scorer Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 1

Week 1 gives us a heavyweight under the lights: Ravens vs Bills at Highmark Stadium. Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET. The spread sits around Baltimore -1.5 with a total of 50.5, which screams scoring chances on both sides. If you’re targeting touchdown markets, the board is deep and the matchups are clear.

Baltimore’s offense now runs through Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, with a red-zone focus that punishes soft boxes and missed tackles. Buffalo’s offense leans on spacing and quick hitters, especially if the Ravens’ pass rush speeds things up. That’s the story that shapes who’s most likely to hit pay dirt.

Ravens touchdown candidates and how they match up

Derrick Henry is the headliner. In 2024, he became Baltimore’s sledgehammer near the goal line, logging 20 carries inside the five-yard line — the second-most in the league. The fit with the Ravens’ top-graded run-blocking unit (per PFF last season) is obvious: get downhill, move bodies, finish drives. The Bills struggled against the run in 2024, ranking 31st in defensive rushing efficiency, which only strengthens his case. And in their Week 4 meeting last year, Henry shredded Buffalo for 199 rushing yards and two scores at 8.3 yards per carry. Books are pricing him as the tone-setter, with +550 to score first a realistic swing if Baltimore receives early short fields.

Mark Andrews is the bounce-back story. He’s still Lamar Jackson’s security blanket when the field shrinks. After a rough playoff finish last year, you can expect the Ravens to script early red-zone looks for him — quick seams, flats off play-action, and option routes against linebackers. He doesn’t need volume; he needs one mismatch near the pylon. If you prefer safer markets, Andrews as an anytime scorer fits parlays tied to a Ravens win.

Rashod Bateman brings the coverage edge. He broke out with nine touchdowns in 2024, five in the red zone, and he did a lot of damage against zone coverage. Buffalo sat in zone at a top-eight rate last season and finished bottom 10 in both passing yards and receiving touchdowns allowed. That’s Bateman’s lane. He finds pockets, sits between defenders, and wins with timing. At +250 for anytime, he’s one of the cleaner values on the board if you believe Baltimore sustains drives rather than relying solely on explosives.

How I’m thinking about Ravens touchdown outcomes: Henry profiles as the early hammer and primary red-zone finisher, Andrews owns the precision targets inside the 10, and Bateman is the zone beater who can pop on a 15–25 yard strike or a red-zone pivot. If you like the Ravens to control the script, pairing Henry anytime with either Andrews or Bateman creates a logical stack.

• Derrick Henry, first TD (+550) and anytime
• Mark Andrews, anytime
• Rashod Bateman, anytime (+250)

Bills touchdown paths and the game script that helps them

Baltimore’s pass rush closes space fast, which pushes Buffalo toward quick throws, screens, and crossers. That suits Khalil Shakir. He’s the receiver who thrives on timing routes, motion looks, and yards after catch. If the Bills are chasing or want to neutralize pressure, Shakir gets fed on slants, bubbles, and shallow crossers that can turn into red-zone snaps and jet motion near the goal line. He’s also a natural outlet when Josh Allen breaks the pocket — the kind of scramble drill that leads to short-area touchdowns.

Ty Johnson is the long-shot with a real role. He scored four times last season, caught three receiving touchdowns, and led all running backs in downfield targets in 2024. Down the stretch he was nearly splitting snaps with James Cook, and he appears to have nudged ahead of Ray Davis for the change-of-pace duties. Against a defense that brings heat, Johnson’s check-downs and angle routes matter. One missed tackle, and he’s in. At +750 for anytime, you’re betting on usage in high-leverage spots and a game that tilts pass-heavy for Buffalo.

The Bills’ touchdown picture looks different depending on how the first quarter plays out. If Baltimore lands early, Buffalo goes hurry-up and the ball spreads to Shakir, Johnson, and the tight ends on quick hitters. If the game stays even, you’ll still see designed throws to the flats and screens to slow the rush. Either way, the short passing game is the safest path to finishing drives without living in third-and-long.

Here’s how those Bills options stack for touchdown markets:

• Khalil Shakir, anytime — best when you expect sustained, quick-drive offense
• Ty Johnson, anytime (+750) — leverage on check-downs, screens, and two-minute work

Market notes to help frame your bets: the total at 50.5 suggests multiple red-zone trips for both teams. Baltimore’s power-run identity near the goal line is reliable, which keeps Henry and Andrews live regardless of game script. Buffalo’s TDs are more likely to come through space and tempo unless they break an explosive — which nudges value toward Shakir and Johnson, with price doing most of the heavy lifting on Johnson.

If you’re building tickets, think in correlations. Like Baltimore -1.5? Tie Henry anytime to that spread or to a same-game parlay with Andrews. Lean Buffalo to keep pace? Shakir anytime pairs well with a Bills team total over or with Johnson as a sprinkle. If you expect a back-and-forth game with no clear control, Bateman and Shakir as dual anytime scorers is a sensible mid-range payout.

One more angle: first touchdown markets often reward teams that script their first 15 plays well and win early field position. The Ravens check both boxes with their opening-drive success last year and their ability to bully short yardage. That’s why Henry first TD sits at a playable number. If you prefer to spread risk, you can split a small stake between Henry first TD and Andrews first TD, knowing both are top reads inside the five.

Bottom line on the matchup: Baltimore has the cleaner red-zone identity. Buffalo is more dependent on pace and spacing. That doesn’t mean fewer Bills touchdowns — it just means you’re betting on precision and volume rather than brute force. With both teams 0-0 and no in-season injuries tilting snap counts yet, the Week 1 board is friendliest to role clarity. Henry, Andrews, and Bateman have it for Baltimore. Shakir and Johnson have enough of it for Buffalo, at prices that make sense.

Suggested card, scaled by confidence and price:

• Derrick Henry — anytime (primary), first TD (+550 sprinkle)
• Mark Andrews — anytime (primary if you prefer pass-catching exposure)
• Rashod Bateman — anytime (+250 value)
• Ty Johnson — anytime (+750 long-shot)
• Khalil Shakir — anytime (script-dependent)

With a tight spread and a high total, you’re betting on who finishes drives, not just who racks up yards. Baltimore’s finishers are well-defined. Buffalo’s value comes from speed and usage when the game speeds up. That’s the edge in Week 1.